Abstract
This policy brief represents the second in a series of reports on the effects of California’s $20 fast-food minimum wage. The first report, issued on September 30, 2024, used early data to generate preliminary estimates of the policy’s impacts in its first three months. The current report draws from the same data sources, but now through mid-December 2024, and from new data sources that became available only after the first report. I focus here on the highlights of our new results, as we plan to issue a third, more detailed report, later this year.
Our updated findings include: an estimated wage increase of 8 to 9 percent for workers covered by the policy; no spillovers to non-covered workers; no negative effects on fast-food employment; and price increases of about 1.5 percent— or about 6 cents on a four-dollar hamburger. The number of fast-food establishments grew faster in California than in the rest of the U.S. I also identify questionable methods in a recent industry report that claims the policy led to substantial negative employment effects and large price increases. That report cherry picks its numbers and does not use modern causal identification methods, casting doubt on its claims.
