Seattle’s Minimum Wage Experience 2015-16
Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies: A Response to Neumark, Salas and Wascher
Effects of a $15 Minimum Wage in California and Fresno
ILR Review 70(3):559-592. May 2017.
- The authors assess the critique by Neumark, Salas, and Wascher (2014) of minimum wage studies that found small effects on teen employment. Data from 1979 to 2014 contradict NSW; the authors show that the disemployment suggested by a model assuming parallel trends across U.S. states mostly reflects differential pre-existing trends. A data-driven LASSO procedure that optimally corrects for state trends produces a small employment elasticity (–0.01). Even a highly sparse model rules out substantial disemployment effects, contrary to NSW’s claim that the authors discard too much information. Synthetic controls do place more weight on nearby states—confirming the value of regional controls—and generate an elasticity of ?0.04. A similar elasticity (?0.06) obtains from a design comparing contiguous border counties, which the authors show to be good controls. NSW’s preferred matching estimates mix treatment and control units, obtain poor matches, and find the highest employment declines where the relative minimum wage falls. These findings refute NSW’s key claims.
Are minimum wage increases absorbed by small price increases?
Are Local Minimum Wages Absorbed by Price Increases? Estimates from Internet-based Restaurant Menus
Two and a half decades: Still waiting for change
The teacher pay gap is wider than ever
Credible research designs for minimum wage studies
Minimum Wage Shocks, Employment Flows and Labor Market Frictions
Data and Methods for Estimating the Impact of Proposed Local Minimum Wage Laws
Journal of Labor Economics, 34(3):663-704. April 2016.
- We provide the first estimates of the effects of minimum wages on employment flows in the US labor market, identifying the impact by using policy discontinuities at state borders. We find that minimum wages have a sizable negative effect on employment flows but not on stocks. Separations and accessions fall among affected workers, especially those with low tenure. We do not find changes in the duration of nonemployment for separations or hires. This evidence is consistent with search models with endogenous separations.