IRLE’s storage archive hosts replication datasets for affiliated faculty. Please contact Elizabeth del Rocío Camacho, email@example.com if you would like to make use of this facility.
- Revisiting the Impacts of Teachers
Investigator: Jesse Rothstein
Abstract: Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014a, 2014b) study value-added (VA) measures of teacher effectiveness. CFR (2014a) exploits teacher switching as a quasi-experiment, concluding that student sorting creates negligible bias in VA scores. CFR (2014b) finds VA scores are useful proxies for teachers’ effects on students’ long-run outcomes. I successfully reproduce each in North Carolina data. But I find that the quasi-experiment is invalid, as teacher switching is correlated with changes in student preparedness. Adjusting for this, I find moderate bias in VA scores, perhaps 10-35% as large, in variance terms, as teachers’ causal effects. Long-run results are sensitive to controls and cannot support strong conclusions.
Rothstein, Jesse. “Revisiting the Impacts of Teachers.” Working Paper, January 2017.
- The Great Recession and its Aftermath: What Role for Structural Changes?
Investigator: Jesse Rothstein
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Abstract: The last decade has been disastrous for many workers, and particularly so for those with low human capital or other forms of disadvantage. Although the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the labor market was very slow to recover thereafter. One explanation attributes the ongoing poor labor market outcomes of young and non-college workers to the combination of deficient aggregate labor demand and greater sensitivity of marginal workers to cyclical conditions. A second attributes them to structural changes in the labor market. These have importantly different policy implications: Cyclical explanations imply that the main problem in recent years has been a shortage of aggregate labor demand, and that if demand is increased then many of the patterns seen since 2009 will revert to their pre-recession trends. Structural explanations, by contrast,suggest the recent experience is the "new normal," absent policy responses to encourage more (or different) labor supply. This paper reviews data since 2007 for evidence on the two explanations. I focus on wage trends as an indicator of the relative importance of labor supply and demand. I find little evidence of wage pressure in any quantitatively important labor markets before 2015, pointing to demand as the binding constraint. The most recent data shows some signs of tightness, but still substantial ongoing slack.
Rothstein, Jesse. “The Great Recession and its Aftermath: What Role for Structural Changes?” Working Paper, July 2016.
- The Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-Out
Investigator: Henry S. Farber, Jesse Rothstein and Robert G. Valletta
Abstract: Unemployment Insurance benefit durations were extended during the Great Recession, reaching 99 weeks for most recipients. The extensions were rolled back and eventually terminated by the end of 2013. Using matched CPS data from 2008-2014, we estimate the effect of extended benefits on unemployment exits separately during the earlier period of benefit expansion and the later period of rollback. In both periods, we find little or no effect on job-finding but a reduction in labor force exits due to benefit availability. We estimate that the rollbacks reduced the labor force participation rate by about 0.1 percentage point in early 2014.
Farber, Henry S., Jesse Rothstein, and Robert G. Valletta. 2015. "The Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-Out." American Economic Review, 105(5): 171-76. doi: 10.1257/aer.p20151088
- Teacher Quality Policy When Supply Matters
Investigator: Jesse Rothstein
Abstract: Teacher contracts that condition pay and retention on demonstrated performance can improve selection into and out of teaching. I study alternative contracts in a simulated teacher labor market that incorporates dynamic self-selection and Bayesian learning. Bonus policies create only modest incentives and thus have small effects on selection. Reductions in tenure rates can have larger effects, but must be accompanied by substantial salary increases; elimination of tenure confers little additional benefit unless firing rates are extremely high. Benefits of both bonus and tenure policies exceed costs, though optimal policies are sensitive to labor market parameters about which little is known.
Rothstein, Jesse. 2015. "Teacher Quality Policy When Supply Matters." American Economic Review, 105(1): 100-130. doi: 10.1257/aer.20121242
- Unemployment Insurance and Disability Insurance in the Great Recession
Investigator: Andreas I. Mueller, Jesse Rothstein and Till M. von Wachter
Abstract: Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) applications rise during recessions, prompting concerns that SSDI attracts marginally disabled individuals who are able to work but cannot find jobs. In that case, countercyclical Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefit extensions may deter potentially expensive SSDI awards at comparatively low cost. We exploit the haphazard pattern of UI extensions in the Great Recession to identify the effect of UI exhaustion on SSDI application, using aggregate data at the state-month and state-week levels. In panel data and event study analyses, we find no indication that expiration of UI benefits causes SSDI applications. Our estimates are sufficiently precise to rule out effects of meaningful magnitude. A supplementary analysis of matched CPS data finds little overlap between the populations served by the two programs: Only 28% of SSDI awardees had any labor force attachment in the prior calendar year, and of those only 4% received UI income.
Mueller, Andreas I., Rothstein, Jesse and von Wachter, Till M. 2014. "Unemployment Insurance and Disability Insurance in the Great Recession." Forthcoming, Journal of Labor Economics.
- Tipped Wage Effects on Earnings and Employment in Full-Service Restaurants
Investigator: Sylvia A. Allegretto and Carl Nadler
Abstract: We exploit more than 20 years of changes in state-level tipped wage policy and estimate earnings and employment effects of the tipped wage using county-level panel data on full-service restaurants (FSR). We extend earlier work by Dube, Lester, and Reich (2010) and compare outcomes between contiguous counties that straddle a state border. We find a 10-percent increase in the tipped wage increases earnings in FSRs about 0.4 percent. Employment elasticities are sensitive to the inclusion of controls for unobserved spatial heterogeneity. In our preferred models, we find small, insignificant effects of the tipped wage on FSR employment.
Allegretto, S. and Nadler, C. (2015), Tipped Wage Effects on Earnings and Employment in Full-Service Restaurants. Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 54: 622–647. doi: 10.1111/irel.12108